Is it worth waiting for Windows 10 before replacing a PC?

I want to buy a new laptop for general purpose family use. Should the launch ofWindows 10 affect whether I buy now or wait in the hope that vendors sell off older models cheaply? Given that it might be a free upgrade, I’m wondering if this changes what normally happens before a large upgrade.

I’m currently using Windows 7 on a five-year-old Toshiba Satellite L500-1WG. Based on how I use my laptop, I think I’d find Windows 8.1 hard to get on with.Michael

I don’t expect this summer’s launch of Windows 10 to have a significant effect on the price of laptops, for two reasons. First, it will be a free upgrade. Second, Windows 10 runs on the same hardware as the current Windows 8.1, only better. Indeed, it could tend to prolong the active life of older laptops by making better use of their processor and memory chips.

Traditionally, Microsoft has helped PC manufacturers to maintain sales, and therefore prices, by providing free upgrades for laptops bought within a few months of the launch of a new version of Windows. This wasn’t a perfect solution because buyers still had to obtain and install the new software, which required some effort. However, I expect the upgrade from Windows 8.1 to 10 to be as simple as clicking the install button when it’s offered by Windows Update, just like the upgrade from Windows 8 to 8.1.

The small catch is that the Windows 10 update will only apply to Windows 8.1, not to Windows 8. People who want to upgrade from Windows 8 (and earlier) will need to download and install the new operating system from a DVD or perhaps a USB thumbdrive.

PC hardware should not be affected. Manufacturers have already made the significant changes needed for Windows 8, most obviously by including touch-sensitive screens as standard. The other important change was to swap the old 1981-vintage BIOS for the UEFI system that enables Windows 8 PCs to be turned on and off with a power button, and wake up from sleep in a second or two, much like a tablet.

Your old Windows 7 laptop lacks the touch screen for “modern” (formerly Metro) apps, and the fast start-up. But Windows 8.1 laptops already have both, and won’t need anything new to run Windows 10. There’s no logical reason why suppliers should dump them at low prices.

Free Windows 10

Not all versions of Windows are equal. Some are innovative and break new ground, while others fix problems and add polish to earlier versions. Historically, Windows 3, Windows NT3.5, Windows 95, Windows 2000, Vista and Windows 8 all introduced fundamental changes to the operating system, while Windows 3.1, NT4.0, 98/SE, XP and Windows 7 mainly refined and polished their predecessors. Sometimes this involved major changes to the user interface – in a car analogy, the engine stayed the same but the dashboard and controls got a makeover.

All the refined versions of Windows have been very successful, because most users don’t have a clue about operating systems: they judge them by their interfaces.

On this basis, I expect Windows 10 to do well, since it mostly fixes the basic usability problem with Windows 8 – which Windows 8.1 merely ameliorated – while adding other refinements. The usability problem was, of course, that Windows 8 was designed for new touch-screen computers and tablets, and wasn’t as easy to use with old keyboard-and-mouse-based desktops and laptops, ie Windows’ 1.6bn installed base.

In fact, Windows 8 added a whole new secure and sandboxed operating environment with different apps, a different programming model, and a completely different user interface. It worked very well on tablets, but it was separate from the desktop environment it inherited from Windows 7. In Windows 10, the two have been melded so that you can run modern apps in windows alongside desktop programs such as Adobe Photoshop and Lightroom, Apple iTunes etc – and they work fine with a keyboard and mouse.

Windows 10 will also introduce “universal” apps, which can run on Windows PCs, tablets, Windows Phone and the Xbox One games console. This should create a much bigger market for Windows Store apps – the equivalent of Apple iOS and Android apps – and help to reduce the current “app gap”.

Finally, it looks as though Windows 10 will be free to everyone, at least for the first year. This includes people with pirate copies of XP. Yesterday, Terry Myerson, who runs Microsoft’s operating systems unit, announced the plan at the WinHECtechnology conference in Shenzhen, China. ”We are upgrading all qualified PCs, genuine and non-genuine, to Windows 10,” he said in a telephone interview with Reuters.

How much it will cost after the first year, if anything, is a mystery. Either way, this marks a shift from Windows as a product to Windows as a service, updated on a more-or-less continuous basis, as I hinted in 2013.

I reckon Microsoft makes (very) roughly $1 a month from a consumer who buys a Windows PC. Can it make more than that from Office 365, Skype, OneDrive, Bing adverts, app sales and other sources, including Surface Pro tablets, Lumia phones, Xbox consoles, mice, pens, and keyboards? We shall see.

Upgrade or replace?

Your five-year-old Toshiba Satellite L500-1WG shouldn’t have any problems running Windows 10. It has a 2.2GHz Intel Pentium T4400 dual-core processor, which is roughly as powerful as the Intel Atom Z3795 used in some of today’s cheap 2-in-1 laptops and tablets – though, of course, the T4400 runs hotter and eats batteries. The graphics are weak by today’s standards, but if you swapped out the 320GB hard drive for a cheap SSD (solid state drive) then your Tosh should work better with Windows 10 than it does with Windows 7.

Bear in mind that Microsoft has been making Windows much more efficient to the point where it now runs on tablets with only 1GB of memory, and the phone version will run in 512MB. You have 4GB.

There are, of course, plenty of reasons to buy a new laptop. You will get the advantages of a touch screen and, if you pay extra, a digitising pen. You will get the “almost-instant on” mentioned above, which removes the chore of waiting for Windows to wake up. You will probably get a thinner, lighter, faster and more versatile machine that uses less power and provides more battery life. And voice control with Cortana.

As for timing, in my experience, the best times to buy are in the mini-booms towards the end of March-early April, and in August-September. The first comes when Asian suppliers have sold off stock at the end of their financial year and UK companies are buying new tax-deductible PCs before the end of their financial years. The second comes when students and educational institutions are shopping for new PCs for the start of the academic year. But if you look, there are always bargains to be found.